Lazio vs AC Milan
After another midweek win, the pressure is on Lazio to pick up another three points as they look to chase down Juventus. On paper, that should be do-able. Lazio are unbeaten in their last 16 home games (W12 D4), since losing against Atalanta in May 2019. Meanwhile, Milan are fresh from a serious struggle at relegation-threatened Spal.
However, Lazio have to face this clash without forward Ciro Immobile. The striker is suspended after giving away an early penalty in their win over Torino. That’s left a major test ahead for Simone Inzaghi, given how his side have been fired towards the top by the forward. Our predictions point to Milan springing a surprise and walking away with the points.
Lazio will be without Immobile for the first time in a Serie A game this season; with him on the pitch, the Biancocelesti have averaged 2.2 goals per game, whilst without him on the pitch they’ve average 1.5 goals a game. While they are without their finisher, the Biancocelesti will still have the creative talents to carve Milan open. Luis Alberto will feature – he has 14 assists for the club this term. In contrast, Milan’s top assister is Hakan Calhanoglu with three.
That’s not to say that the visitors are without a threat here. AC Milan will be aiming to score in 12 consecutive Serie A games for the first time September 2017. They come into this one looking strong upfront, with Ante Rebic sparking into life as their main threat. The Rossoneri have seen both teams score in their last four league games, a run which could continue in Rome.
Lazio have still scored 37 goals outside of Immobile, while their stand-in forwards will aim to impress by feeding on the chances offered by Alberto. The Biancocelesti have scored in 14 of their 15 home games, so we are backing both teams to score as our first prediction here.
The hosts may have taken six points since the restart, but their displays across the three games haven’t been as convincing. After throwing away a 2-0 lead at Atalanta to lose 3-2, Lazio have twice had to come from behind to win. Both victories were inspired partly by Ciro Immobile, so his absence will likely be felt by the Biancocelesti. While we still see Lazio making a breakthrough without him, the Italian forward has scored almost half of their league goals this term.
There’s also the fact that history is against the hosts in this one. AC Milan have drawn 59 Serie A games against Lazio – more than against any other opponent in the competition (65 wins for the Rossoneri and 29 for the Biancocelesti). Following their 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture, Lazio will be aiming to complete a league double over AC Milan for the first time since 1977/78. We don’t see them getting it, with a 1-1 draw our correct score prediction.